Both China and the United States have expressed a sudden change in the situation less than a week after China and the United States are withdrawing from a possible trade war. On May 29, the US White House official website issued a statement that the United States will implement specific investment restrictions and increase control over exports to Chinese individuals and entities related to mergers and acquisitions of important industrial technologies. The list of restrictions and controls will be announced no later than June 30, 2018.
The statement also stated that under Article 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on products from China containing $50 billion worth of important industrial technology, including those related to the "2025 Made in China" program. The final list of these imported products will be announced by June 15, 2018. In addition, the US trade representative will continue to resolve disputes initiated in March at the World Trade Organization (WTO) for China's discriminatory technology licensing regulations.
In addition to scrambling for the eye, Trump’s rebellion seems to have no real meaning in the eyes of some scholars. Derek Scissors, a US-China economic researcher at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), said to the Caijing reporter that the statement on investment restrictions is meaningless because Congress has already taken measures in this regard; The 25% tariff on the $100 million product is also repeated in March, but it highlights the words of industrial technology more than in March; the part on the WTO is irrelevant.
However, this statement still broke the optimism that the US suspended the tariff imposed on China.
For this sudden change of Trump, Elizabeth Economy, director of the American Foreign Relations Association's Asia Department, explained to the Caijing reporter that Trump's negotiation strategy is very flexible. The transaction is only completed when the transaction is completed.
Yi Ming concluded that during the first 18 months of Trump's administration, he took a variety of different approaches to China: sweetly seduce, threaten, swindle, praise and punish. The different voices in his economic team each promote different ways and means; if one method is not effective, it is very simple, he will switch to another method. Although the goal is relatively consistent, the tactics can be quickly switched. This led to the great unpredictability of his negotiating style and made it difficult to understand what he did.
On May 29th, the US political news website PoliTICo published a report on the loss of Commerce Secretary Ross, which illustrates the possibility of a sharp change in Trump's policy, which coincides with Yi Ming's statement. The opening of the report said that investor Ross entered the Trump administration as one of Trump's "killers", but in recent months, the Secretary of Commerce has become increasingly marginalized. In the White House, his Ministry of Commerce was It is generally considered a mess.
When Trump fell into a personal financial crisis, Ross, as a representative of Trump's Taj Mahal casino hotel bondholder who filed for bankruptcy, had a long negotiations with Trump. Eventually he won a respite for Trump. But now, insiders say that Trump himself slammed Ross at the White House Oval Office meeting, publicly saying that Rose "has passed his peak period", "is no longer a killer" and tries to stop Ross Launched a trade agreement.
The article revealed that although Ross was one of the loudest protectionist voices spoken by the Trump administration earlier, when the US trade delegation visited China in May, the limelight was completely robbed by Finance Minister Mnuchin.
In addition to Gongdou, this time Trump’s sudden change, many trade experts in Washington told the Caijing reporter that a careful study of the joint statement issued by the two sides will reveal clues: although the two sides will take effective measures. Sexually reducing the US trade deficit with China, and temporarily agreeing on the two core issues of intellectual property protection and market access, these sound very exciting, but in fact the content is vague and the details are missing.
When US Finance Minister Mnuchin received an interview with Fox TV in the United States, he had already poured cold water on the Chinese and American words and left behind. He pointed out that the goal of reducing the trade deficit in the United States will be divided into industries, rather than proposing a total figure; adding a "suspension" of tariffs and trade wars, but if China fails to fulfill its promise, President Trump can decide on Chinese goods at any time. Re-add tariffs.
Regarding the latest statement from the Trump administration, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a statement late at night on the 29th: "We are surprised by the strategic statement issued by the White House, but it is also expected, which is obviously contrary to the recent The consensus reached between China and the United States in Washington. No matter what measures the US has introduced, China has the confidence, ability and experience to defend the interests of the Chinese people and the core interests of the country. China urges the US to follow the spirit of the Joint Declaration.
At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on May 30, a reporter asked the Chinese side for further comments on the matter.
Hua Chunying: A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded last night.
I think everyone's feelings are the same. In international relations, every change of face and rebellion is another loss and squandering of the credibility of their country. The relevant statement by the US is obviously contrary to the consensus reached between China and the United States in Washington not long ago. We urge the US dialect to have a letter and follow the Chinese side in accordance with the spirit of the joint statement.
The Chinese side has always advocated properly handling and resolving relevant economic and trade differences through equal dialogue and consultation and constructively. This is in line with the fundamental long-term interests of the two countries and the two peoples and is also the common expectation of the international community. Still, the Chinese do not want to fight, but they are not afraid to fight trade. there is always a solution to a problem. If the US is determined to be willful, China will certainly take resolute and effective measures to safeguard its legitimate interests.
In fact, for the effectiveness of tariff frictions in trade friction, Edward Alden, an international trade expert at the American Foreign Relations Association, pointed out to the Caijing reporter that the threat of tariffs is no longer comparable to that of the 1980s. The possibility of using tariffs to threaten other countries to change trade behaviors has also become smaller – global supply chains have made it difficult to achieve the purpose of damaging the domestic economy by using trade sanctions.
In addition, some media reports said that Qualcomm intends to hold talks with the Chinese government's anti-monopoly department before the US Secretary of Commerce Ross arrived in Beijing this weekend to seek approval from China for its acquisition of NXP Semiconductors, after its acquisition plan was extended due to anti-monopoly review. And fell into stagnation. When the United States imposes restrictions on Chinese investment in the United States, it may affect the pool fish and hinder US companies from cooperating with Chinese companies abroad. Qualcomm may be the first to bear the brunt and become a weight in Sino-US trade interaction.
In addition, the US State Department local time on Tuesday (29th) said that the Trump administration plans to shorten the validity of some visas issued to Chinese citizens.
According to the Associated Press, the policy will be implemented from June 11. According to the US State Department, according to the new policy, US embassy and consular officials will not issue the longest period of time as usual, and may shorten the validity of the visa. The US State Department did not provide specific details, but a US official said that according to instructions received by US embassies and consulates, the validity period of Chinese student visas for majors in robotics, aerospace and high-tech manufacturing will be limited to one year. According to the report, the above-mentioned majors are the priority areas for the “Made in China 2025†program.
In addition, the US Department of Commerce lists a list of companies that require advanced review. If Chinese citizens are to go to these companies for research or management, they will need permission from multiple US departments to obtain a visa. An anonymous US official said that each such visa application is expected to take several months.
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