The entry barrier of the LED industry chain from the upstream to the downstream industry is gradually reduced. The upstream and middle reaches have high technical content and high capital input density, which is the most intense international competition and the most risky business. In the midstream of the LED industry, there is basically no space for SMEs.
"SMEs are sure to have more opportunities in the downstream, this is beyond doubt!" Pan Jiangen, an expert in the overall expert group of the National 863 Special Semiconductor Lighting Project and vice chairman of the Zhejiang Lighting Society, said: "China's LED industry is driven downstream by the LED industry. The application market promotes upstream development."
Behind the display
Since World War II, ultra-small tungsten lamps have been used as backlights for aircraft instruments, and backlights have evolved over half a century. Nowadays, LED backlight displays are widely used in digital products such as mobile phones, digital cameras, computers, and color TVs.
In 2009, China’s TV production reached nearly 100 million units, computer production exceeded 180 million units, and mobile phone production reached 619 million units. This is a tempting cake! According to industry experts, 81% of notebook computers will be used in 2010. LED backlight technology, LED TV as an emerging product is expected to achieve four times growth, from 1 million units in 2009 to 4 million units.
At present, LED products are widely used in mobile phones, and are the most important application areas of LED products, accounting for about 30% of the total market demand. Generally, each mobile phone needs 10-20 LED products, which are used in the mobile phone keyboard, display backlight and camera flash. The penetration rate of LED products in the mobile phone market has stabilized. In the future, the growth of LED products for mobile phones will be directly affected by mobile phone sales.
According to the forecast of TMT Research Group of Xiangcai Securities Research Institute, the price of LED products for mobile phones is 0.14 US dollars, and the number of LED products for mobile phones is 12-17. In 2010, the market size of LED products for mobile phones will exceed 2 billion US dollars.
In the field of LCD TVs and liquid crystal displays, most LCD panels currently use cold cathode fluorescent tubes (CCFLs) as backlights. Compared with CCFL, LED backlights are compact, 30%-50% energy-efficient than CCFL, fast response, better image display performance, and more environmentally friendly because of mercury-free.
Currently, LED backlights have been adopted in small-size LCD panels, and the main reason for blocking LEDs from entering large-size LCD panels is price. The price of LED backlights is generally 1.5-2.5 times that of CCFL backlights. However, major LCD TV brands including Samsung, Philips, Sharp, Sony, Toshiba and LG have increased their use of LED backlights since the second half of 2009. Major manufacturers in the LED industry have actively deployed LCD TV backlights. Growth opportunities. As the price of LED backlights declines, LEDs will be more attractive to manufacturers and penetration will increase rapidly.
The size of the LCD screen is different, and the number of LED backlights required is different. A 22-inch LCD monitor requires about 100 LED backlights, and a 40-inch LCD TV requires about 1000 LED backlights. According to the prediction of TMT Research Group of Xiangcai Securities Research Institute, assuming that each LCD TV and display uses 400 LED backlights, the price of each backlight is 0.2 US dollars. In the next 3 years, the market scale of LED backlights in LCD TVs and monitors will reach 400 million US dollars, 1.86 billion US dollars, 4.25 billion US dollars, a geometric progression.
HP, the world's largest computer manufacturer, plans to “free mercury†in 2010. A number of notebooks with LED backlights have been introduced; Dell's 2009 80% notebook line uses LED backlights, 2010 In the year, LED backlight notebooks were fully introduced; Acer also switched to LED backlight technology in 2010; Lenovo has also introduced notebook computers using LED technology... More and more notebook manufacturers are actively introducing LED backlight technology.
Display search of the global flat-display industry research organization predicts the penetration rate of LED backlights. In 2010, LED notebook computers will reach 145.06 million units, using 70 LED backlights per computer, with an average price of 0.2 US dollars. 2010 LED notebook backlights The source market will reach $2 billion.
Car LED: Illuminate "Qian Cheng"
Because LED has many advantages, its application field is expanding and its application products are increasing. Currently, LEDs for illuminating indications are widely used in automotive lighting applications. Automotive LEDs are divided into two categories: in-vehicle LEDs and exterior LEDs. Each vehicle requires 100 LEDs inside and 200 LEDs externally.
The LED in the car is mainly used in the backlight display of the digital instrument assembly. Its technical performance index is similar to that of the consumer products such as mobile phones, but the optical, electrical, etc. of the LED angle, chromatic aberration, brightness, threshold voltage, current, etc. Performance consistency and reliability requirements are higher. The LEDs outside the car are mainly used in brake lights, front turn signals, rear turn signals, side turn signals, rear fog lights and reversing lights.
At present, the LED headlights are still in the development stage. The world's largest car manufacturer, the Japanese small car lamp company, and the German Hella company have launched concept products. Toyota's 2008 Lexus LS600 became the world's first part of the application of LED headlamps, and the LED headlamps became the world's first commercial LED headlamps. The Audi R8 then introduced a full LED headlamp that made all the functions of the LED headlights a reality for the first time. However, in general, LED headlamps have not yet reached the level of commercial mass production. The main reasons include that the brightness of individual LED components is not strong enough, and the white LEDs used in headlamps are still attenuated and the price is too high.
There are two constraints on the development of automotive LED industry in China: First, in the automotive industry, most of the cars produced in China are foreign brands. There are very few independent brands, and they are medium and low-end cars. Therefore, there are not many LED lights. Currently only high-position brake lights and side turn signals use LED light sources. Second, in terms of domestic LED components, most of the LEDs produced in China are low-end LEDs, which generally do not meet the LED standards for automobiles; coupled with the lack of industry standards, there are a large number of home workshops that disrupt the LED market and affect LEDs. The reputation of the light source.
In the future, with the rise of private-sector cars with independent intellectual property rights, China's auto industry is increasingly competitive, with 10-20 new models being launched each year, the fastest of which is automotive lighting. The foreign parties in the joint venture are under pressure from competition, and the intention to localize and adopt LED light sources has also begun to increase. The Fortune Securities Research and Development Center believes that the constraints of LED promotion in the automotive industry will be gradually resolved.
With the official ban of the first phase of the elimination of incandescent lamps in the European Union, the EU and other countries have also announced the addition of new lights to Osram (Osram) and Philips' LED manufacturers Lumileds have launched high-power vehicle headlights and achieved important breakthrough. In July 2009, Jilin Dongguang Ruibao Auto Lamp Co., Ltd., based on the “National 863 Program†project, has taken the lead in developing the full LED headlamp lamp in China, thus shortening the field of LED headlamps in China and the international advanced level. The gap provides technical support for the future application of LED light source in China's automotive field.
According to the Industrial Securities R&D Center, the automotive LED market will continue to maintain rapid growth of more than double digits in recent years. In 2011, the market size reached 1.2 billion US dollars.
Street lamp fires the first shot of LED lighting
Due to the high price of early LEDs and technical problems in life reliability, the relevant industry standards are missing, and the LED lighting market is launched late.
Architectural lighting is a commercial lighting, and it is less sensitive to the high price of LED lighting, thus becoming the first area where LED lighting is launched. In the future, with the increase in luminous efficiency and luminous flux of products such as white LEDs, Strategy Unlimited expects the market size of architectural lighting to reach US$680 million in 2012.
Outdoor lighting includes lighting equipment in areas such as highways, roads, and tunnels. For traffic safety reasons, road lighting has very strict safety standards. LED lighting still has a gap between the technical indicators of color temperature, color rendering and glare and the high-pressure sodium lamps widely used in street lamps. At the same time, the high price and lack of street lamp technical standards also hinder LED lighting in outdoor lighting, especially in the field of road lighting. Promote popularization.
However, with the continuous development of LED technology and the continuous decline in prices, the popularity of LED lighting technology in the field of outdoor lighting can be determined. The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games and the 2010 Shanghai World Expo have all adopted LED lighting equipment, which has a symbolic significance for the popularization of LED lighting in the field of outdoor lighting. US high-tech research firm Strategy Unlimited expects LED outdoor lighting to reach $41 million in 2012.
Residential lighting is undoubtedly the most potential area of ​​the overall lighting market, but the customer base is most sensitive to the price of lighting. At present, LED lighting products are mainly used in home decorative lighting because the price is much higher than the traditional light source, and the penetration rate is quite low.
The government's promotion of LED lighting (such as household subsidies) and the decline in the cost of LED products will increase the penetration rate of LED lighting. Strategy Unlimited expects the LED residential lighting market to reach $120 million by 2012.
LEDs are valued by governments in various countries and regions for their excellent performance in energy saving. The global financial crisis has greatly reduced international demand, and the LED industry has turned its attention to the domestic market. The favorable policy came along. In December 2008, the Ministry of Science and Technology proposed the “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand Cities†project. In March 2009, the Ministry of Science and Technology changed the original 10 cities to 21. These cities will receive central financial assistance in the future, installing LED lighting fixtures in public spaces such as roads, tunnels, parking lots and gas stations.
The implementation of the “Ten Cities and Ten Thousand†LED Application Pilot Demonstration Project has brought the third rapid development opportunity for the development of the domestic LED industry, and LED street lights will be launched first. National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance statistics, China's LED street lights in 2008 is 600,000 ç›, is expected to grow rapidly to 5 million 2011 in 2011, the compound annual growth rate will reach 102.7%.
On October 12, 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other six ministries jointly formulated the "Opinions on the Development of Semiconductor Lighting Energy-Saving Industry", proposing that "by 2015, the average annual growth rate of semiconductor lighting energy-saving industry output value will be 30%. Left and right; product market share has increased year by year, functional lighting reached about 20%, and the market share of landscape decoration and other products reached 70% or more.
CCID Consulting expects that until 2013, China's LED lighting market will show rapid development. From the perspective of the amount, the annual average compound growth rate of the LED market for street lamps will reach 38.8%, and the annual average compound growth rate of the LED market for landscape lighting will reach 21.7%, which is higher than the market average compound growth rate and the lighting market. The rapid development will directly drive the market demand for high-power LED products above 1W.
At present, there are more than 15 million street lamps in urban road lighting in China. If the scale can be replaced into LED street lamps in the future, the market scale will reach tens of billions of yuan.
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