China's solar cell industry development characteristics in 2016

China's PV industry has embarked on a new round of growth cycle after experiencing a downturn in 2011. At the same time, starting in 2014, the national government and local governments have actively introduced relevant policies to promote the development of the photovoltaic industry, helping the photovoltaic industry recover.

The export structure of China's photovoltaic products has been tilted toward Asia, and it has gradually changed from a highly dependent European and American country to a diversified export structure. In addition to the sound transformation of the export market structure, the dependence of China's photovoltaic products on the international market is gradually decreasing and the proportion of domestic sales is increasing. However, we must also clearly understand that although the export value of China's photovoltaic products has begun to rebound, but the proportion of exports is declining. The EU and other countries have taken measures against China's photovoltaic products such as "double opposition" and other trade protection measures on the margins of China's photovoltaic industry. The crackdown will be gradually reduced.

Advantage

China attaches great importance to research and development of solar cells. China has become the world’s largest manufacturer of photovoltaic products. In China’s “New Energy Revitalization Plan”, the installed capacity of China's photovoltaic power generation is planned to reach 20 GW by 2020, which is more than 10 of the 1.8GW of the original “long-term planning for renewable energy”. Times.

At present, China has become the world's leading producer of solar cells. China has successfully surpassed Europe and Japan as the world’s largest producer of solar cells. In the industrial layout, China's solar cell industry has formed a certain degree of agglomeration. In the Yangtze River Delta, the Bohai Rim, the Pearl River Delta, and the central and western regions, unique solar industrial clusters have been formed.

China's photovoltaic industry has a good foundation for development in terms of manufacturing level, industrial system, and technology research and development. The prospects of the domestic and foreign markets are generally optimistic. As long as we seize the opportunities for development and accelerate the transformation and upgrading, we will surely usher in a broader space for development in the future.

insufficient

The scale of industry and the advantages of aggregation are not yet obvious. In some regions of China, the solar energy industry is small in size. Although it is strong in technology research and development, some technologies are still in the R&D stage. Some projects are still in the process of preparation and construction, and the real matching has not been formed yet. The industrial clustering advantages are still not obvious.

The scale of enterprises and capital advantages need to be strengthened. The domestic solar cell production and supporting enterprises are mainly small and medium-sized innovative companies. They have a short time to set up or enter the solar cell field, have a small enterprise scale, have weak capital strength, few financing channels, and have the ability to resist market risks, technical risks and financial risks. They are all low, and the advantages of scale, capital, and risk resistance are crucial to the development of the solar cell industry.

The relatively lack of management and management talents. Many entrepreneurs of solar cell companies are professional and technical personnel. The impact of lack of management and management personnel in the initial stage of the enterprise is not yet obvious, but with the continuous development of the enterprise, the lack of management talents will result in the development of the enterprise. Constraints, even directly related to whether the company can become bigger and stronger and its survival.

opportunity

The arrival of the high-speed rail era brings more industrial matching and product application markets for solar cells. From the perspective of regional structure, at present, China has initially formed five major sectors: the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the central region, and the western region. Among them, the Yangtze River Delta uses Jiangsu as the industrial growth pole and focuses on the production of photovoltaic cells and modules in the midstream and downstream industries. The scale accounts for half of the country; Bohai Rim has Hebei as its core, and it mainly produces upstream processing and processing materials, ranking second in industry scale. The main gathering areas are Xingtai, Ningjin, Baoding and Langfang. The Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway passes through the two photovoltaic industry bases in Hebei and Jiangsu, strengthening the exchange and cooperation in technology and product support. In addition, high-speed rail passes along developed cities and provinces such as Beijing, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, and the downstream products of solar cells are mainly used. In these cities, the market for solar cell applications has been expanded.

potential problems

Technological innovation has accelerated and the risk of industrial investment has increased. New solar cell products are constantly emerging, and there will be other newer technologies. Today's mainstream technologies and advanced technologies may be tomorrow's backward technologies and eliminated technologies. The development of various technologies and their market competitiveness and application prospects are full of variables, and the speed of their technological innovation and market changes is getting faster and faster. . This makes the industry's investment is facing greater technical risks and market risks, making each company must constantly face the pressures and challenges of technological development, technological competition and technology selection, and may be tragically slow or one step wrong. The fate of all previous efforts and elimination of the game.

Forecast

After years of development, China has become the world's largest producer of solar cell products and product demanders. Solar cell industry related products are also widely exported to overseas markets while satisfying the needs of the domestic market. According to statistics, the output of photovoltaic modules in China was 43 GW in 2015. During the same period, the global output of photovoltaic modules was 60 GW, and the proportion of China's PV modules production in the global market increased from 60.0% in 2011 to 71.7% in 2015. It is expected that the domestic output in 2016 will account for about 76.9%.

At the same time, China has made good progress in the development and production of high-efficiency batteries. Multiple printing, PERC technology, HIT technology, IBC technology, black silicon technology, etc. are already in use or are being researched and developed. The conversion efficiency of N-type batteries produced by some companies has reached 22.9%, which is at a global advanced level.

In the research of new types of batteries, China has made a breakthrough in the highly concerned perovskite batteries. The photovoltaic conversion efficiency of perovskite solar cells developed by Xiamen Weihua Solar Energy Co., Ltd. has reached 19.6%, ranking first in the world.

It is expected that in the coming years, the supply of solar cell industry will show a year-on-year growth trend, and by 2022, the output of the solar cell industry will reach 95 GW. At the same time, China's demand is very large and there is a rising trend year by year. It is expected that the demand will reach 58.02 GW by 2022.

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