Power companies face severe operating pressures and electricity prices may increase. Has the price of electricity reached the point where it has to be raised? If you increase, what is the magnitude? How much can we solve the contradiction between coal and electricity?
According to the Voice of Economy "Yangguang Finance Review," the winter season has come to ensure that energy supply has once again become a focus of attention. This year, the situation is even less optimistic. According to media reports, power companies are facing the most severe operational pressure since 2008, and the power shortage in some areas has been reappeared. Some provinces and cities are again facing the test of power cuts.
Under the background of eased inflationary pressures, the necessity and possibility of the upward adjustment of electricity prices in the country in the near future has been further increased. At the same time, the new emission standards for thermal power plants that began to be implemented on January 1 next year will also increase the urgency of increasing the price of electricity. Wang Wei, editor of Voice of Economics, was on duty to understand the situation.
Wang Wei: At present, it has entered the winter, and the demand for power heating has increased. The factors that push up the seasonal rise in thermal coal prices persist, which makes the days of power companies more difficult. Power companies are facing the dilemma of losing power.
According to the third quarter report of the power company, the profits of the power sector in the first three quarters fell by more than 26% year-on-year. The financial pressure on enterprises is huge. Some of the power plants have debt ratios approaching 150%. A few days ago, Datang Group's 30 power plants were on the verge of bankruptcy and could become the biggest loss-making central enterprises this year. Datang officials said, "If you continue this way, they are not far from bankruptcy." Not only Datang. At present, Datang, Huaneng, Guodian, Huadian, and China Power Investment Corp.’s five major power generation groups all suffered losses. Industry insiders expect that this year's thermal power industry will not only lose money in the entire industry, but will also be more serious than ever.
The Electricity Regulatory Commission has also issued early warning that the six provinces in the central provinces will face the worst power shortage in history this winter and next spring, and some provinces and cities will once again face the test of power cuts.
The "Emission Standard for Air Pollutants from Thermal Power Plants" will be implemented on January 1, 2012. The improvement of environmental standards will make it difficult for power companies to bear such large operating costs in the face of serious losses. According to reports, the relevant authorities recently reported the price adjustment plan. Taking into account that the losses of power companies are nation-wide, the scope of price adjustment may no longer be limited to local ones.
Will electricity prices rise? If it rises, what are the implications? Rising electricity prices can solve the contradiction between coal and electricity? Special commentator of the Voice of Economy and Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, brought exclusive comments.
Moderator: On the one hand, the power companies are facing the most severe operational pressure since 2008, and some areas have seen signs of power shortages and may face power cuts once again. On the one hand, the new standards for thermal power plants to be implemented next year will increase the cost of thermal power companies. Has the price of electricity reached the point where it has to be raised?
Lin Boqiang: It should be. Many local governments have begun to adopt various methods to increase the price of electricity in disguised form or to lower the price of coal or ensure the supply of coal to the coal-fired power plants. But these efforts to increase coal inventory should be done earlier. The power shortage this winter should be unavoidable. The question now is how big the scope is. In the second aspect, I call this time the shortage of electricity is a soft shortage, and the power plants have become increasingly depleted. The reduction in power generation enthusiasm of power plants should be the most fundamental reason for the shortage of power supply this time. In 2010, the thermal power industry lost more than 40%. The basic reason is that the price of coal has doubled since 2005 and the electricity price has risen by more than 20%. The on-grid tariff has no way to absorb the pressure of rising cost of coal-fired power and coal-fired power companies. The cost rises from 50%-60% of operating costs to about 70%. At this rate, the power plant's losses should become more and more serious. Under such circumstances, if the power plant generates insufficient enthusiasm for power generation, or there is no money to buy coal, or for other reasons, even if there will be power shortages, the government should quickly consider raising the issue of on-grid tariff under the pressure of power shortage.
Moderator: If you increase, how much do you think this increase will be?
Lin Boqiang: This is more difficult to predict. According to the forecast of the China Electricity Council in 2010, thermal power companies will have an on-grid tariff of about 4 cents. I think this is unlikely. According to historical experience, the government is generally the smallest adjustment. If you really want to adjust, adjust the 2 cents is not too much.
Moderator: If there is such an upward movement, when will it be? The next month will face the largest peak in electricity usage, but some people think that the time window that may be more suitable for the on-grid tariff increase is in the second quarter of next year, and the possibility of an upward adjustment before the end of the year is very small. What's your judgment?
Lin Boqiang: At present, local governments are already doing a lot of work. Even if the electricity prices are raised today, it may be more difficult to solve the shortage this winter. It may be more necessary for administrative actions to be taken. It is not necessary to increase the on-grid tariffs at this time but the adjustments at the beginning of the year will not be at the end of the year. This is the government’s judgment on the contradiction between coal and electricity and the determination to change the status quo.
Moderator: On the one hand, electricity is the blood of the national economy. Any fluctuations in the electricity price will be directly or indirectly transmitted, which will affect the direction of the price index. At present, the CPI is still at a high level and has just been adjusted back. If electricity prices rise again, some people are worried about the economic development and the lives of everyone. The reconciliation of electricity prices seems to be a dilemma. No matter how you move or say nothing, one party may be affected. How do you see this contradiction?
Lin Boqiang: This is correct, but if (if) the price of coal rises, the price of electricity cannot but rise. This is a dilemma. Personally, I think that if the price of electricity rises by a small margin, it should have less impact on the economy (especially the short-term). For residents, if the residents' electricity prices are not adjusted, there will be no direct impact on the residents, but the indirect effects should still be there. In simple terms, it is not a matter of discussing the problem of non-adjustment and adjustment in what way.
Moderator: The question is in what way it is adjusted. It seems that after adjusting the price, the profit space brought by the electricity price increase will be swallowed up by the rising coal price. This is your previous point of view. Thermal power companies with large losses are still facing a downturn. If power companies want to turn over, do you think that you can find more appropriate breakthrough points?
Lin Boqiang: It should be there, but the government has to make up its mind that the power generation industry chain includes coal, power generation, and power grids. Every link needs to be taken into consideration. All need to be rationalized. Some (links) make money, and some do not make money, the result must be a shortage of electricity. In other words, a certain part of the power industry chain is the planned price, a certain link is the market price, the theory is not up to the limit, and the reality is not sustainable. Experience tells us that the three links must be taken into account and that there must be a price mechanism to link this industry chain. The price mechanism is coal-electricity linkage, but the coal-fired linkage problem is the government's concern. The price of electricity rose as the price of coal rose. It was the same as the price of electricity. In other words, if the government does not want to control the price of coal, it needs to restrain the power of rising coal prices. According to my understanding, it can be done. China's coal resources are basically state-owned, with relatively concentrated production and state-owned large-scale coal. Therefore, if the price of coal rises sharply, whether we can consider a special income from the central government like coal, like oil, will be paid by the central government. In this way, at least remove the power of coal. In other words, in the future, coal wants to make money, mainly by selling more than selling. This will ease pressure on electricity companies and on electricity prices. This should be a long-term mechanism. The price of electricity was adjusted, and the price of coal followed up. It was the same as no adjustment.
According to the Voice of Economy "Yangguang Finance Review," the winter season has come to ensure that energy supply has once again become a focus of attention. This year, the situation is even less optimistic. According to media reports, power companies are facing the most severe operational pressure since 2008, and the power shortage in some areas has been reappeared. Some provinces and cities are again facing the test of power cuts.
Under the background of eased inflationary pressures, the necessity and possibility of the upward adjustment of electricity prices in the country in the near future has been further increased. At the same time, the new emission standards for thermal power plants that began to be implemented on January 1 next year will also increase the urgency of increasing the price of electricity. Wang Wei, editor of Voice of Economics, was on duty to understand the situation.
Wang Wei: At present, it has entered the winter, and the demand for power heating has increased. The factors that push up the seasonal rise in thermal coal prices persist, which makes the days of power companies more difficult. Power companies are facing the dilemma of losing power.
According to the third quarter report of the power company, the profits of the power sector in the first three quarters fell by more than 26% year-on-year. The financial pressure on enterprises is huge. Some of the power plants have debt ratios approaching 150%. A few days ago, Datang Group's 30 power plants were on the verge of bankruptcy and could become the biggest loss-making central enterprises this year. Datang officials said, "If you continue this way, they are not far from bankruptcy." Not only Datang. At present, Datang, Huaneng, Guodian, Huadian, and China Power Investment Corp.’s five major power generation groups all suffered losses. Industry insiders expect that this year's thermal power industry will not only lose money in the entire industry, but will also be more serious than ever.
The Electricity Regulatory Commission has also issued early warning that the six provinces in the central provinces will face the worst power shortage in history this winter and next spring, and some provinces and cities will once again face the test of power cuts.
The "Emission Standard for Air Pollutants from Thermal Power Plants" will be implemented on January 1, 2012. The improvement of environmental standards will make it difficult for power companies to bear such large operating costs in the face of serious losses. According to reports, the relevant authorities recently reported the price adjustment plan. Taking into account that the losses of power companies are nation-wide, the scope of price adjustment may no longer be limited to local ones.
Will electricity prices rise? If it rises, what are the implications? Rising electricity prices can solve the contradiction between coal and electricity? Special commentator of the Voice of Economy and Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, brought exclusive comments.
Moderator: On the one hand, the power companies are facing the most severe operational pressure since 2008, and some areas have seen signs of power shortages and may face power cuts once again. On the one hand, the new standards for thermal power plants to be implemented next year will increase the cost of thermal power companies. Has the price of electricity reached the point where it has to be raised?
Lin Boqiang: It should be. Many local governments have begun to adopt various methods to increase the price of electricity in disguised form or to lower the price of coal or ensure the supply of coal to the coal-fired power plants. But these efforts to increase coal inventory should be done earlier. The power shortage this winter should be unavoidable. The question now is how big the scope is. In the second aspect, I call this time the shortage of electricity is a soft shortage, and the power plants have become increasingly depleted. The reduction in power generation enthusiasm of power plants should be the most fundamental reason for the shortage of power supply this time. In 2010, the thermal power industry lost more than 40%. The basic reason is that the price of coal has doubled since 2005 and the electricity price has risen by more than 20%. The on-grid tariff has no way to absorb the pressure of rising cost of coal-fired power and coal-fired power companies. The cost rises from 50%-60% of operating costs to about 70%. At this rate, the power plant's losses should become more and more serious. Under such circumstances, if the power plant generates insufficient enthusiasm for power generation, or there is no money to buy coal, or for other reasons, even if there will be power shortages, the government should quickly consider raising the issue of on-grid tariff under the pressure of power shortage.
Moderator: If you increase, how much do you think this increase will be?
Lin Boqiang: This is more difficult to predict. According to the forecast of the China Electricity Council in 2010, thermal power companies will have an on-grid tariff of about 4 cents. I think this is unlikely. According to historical experience, the government is generally the smallest adjustment. If you really want to adjust, adjust the 2 cents is not too much.
Moderator: If there is such an upward movement, when will it be? The next month will face the largest peak in electricity usage, but some people think that the time window that may be more suitable for the on-grid tariff increase is in the second quarter of next year, and the possibility of an upward adjustment before the end of the year is very small. What's your judgment?
Lin Boqiang: At present, local governments are already doing a lot of work. Even if the electricity prices are raised today, it may be more difficult to solve the shortage this winter. It may be more necessary for administrative actions to be taken. It is not necessary to increase the on-grid tariffs at this time but the adjustments at the beginning of the year will not be at the end of the year. This is the government’s judgment on the contradiction between coal and electricity and the determination to change the status quo.
Moderator: On the one hand, electricity is the blood of the national economy. Any fluctuations in the electricity price will be directly or indirectly transmitted, which will affect the direction of the price index. At present, the CPI is still at a high level and has just been adjusted back. If electricity prices rise again, some people are worried about the economic development and the lives of everyone. The reconciliation of electricity prices seems to be a dilemma. No matter how you move or say nothing, one party may be affected. How do you see this contradiction?
Lin Boqiang: This is correct, but if (if) the price of coal rises, the price of electricity cannot but rise. This is a dilemma. Personally, I think that if the price of electricity rises by a small margin, it should have less impact on the economy (especially the short-term). For residents, if the residents' electricity prices are not adjusted, there will be no direct impact on the residents, but the indirect effects should still be there. In simple terms, it is not a matter of discussing the problem of non-adjustment and adjustment in what way.
Moderator: The question is in what way it is adjusted. It seems that after adjusting the price, the profit space brought by the electricity price increase will be swallowed up by the rising coal price. This is your previous point of view. Thermal power companies with large losses are still facing a downturn. If power companies want to turn over, do you think that you can find more appropriate breakthrough points?
Lin Boqiang: It should be there, but the government has to make up its mind that the power generation industry chain includes coal, power generation, and power grids. Every link needs to be taken into consideration. All need to be rationalized. Some (links) make money, and some do not make money, the result must be a shortage of electricity. In other words, a certain part of the power industry chain is the planned price, a certain link is the market price, the theory is not up to the limit, and the reality is not sustainable. Experience tells us that the three links must be taken into account and that there must be a price mechanism to link this industry chain. The price mechanism is coal-electricity linkage, but the coal-fired linkage problem is the government's concern. The price of electricity rose as the price of coal rose. It was the same as the price of electricity. In other words, if the government does not want to control the price of coal, it needs to restrain the power of rising coal prices. According to my understanding, it can be done. China's coal resources are basically state-owned, with relatively concentrated production and state-owned large-scale coal. Therefore, if the price of coal rises sharply, whether we can consider a special income from the central government like coal, like oil, will be paid by the central government. In this way, at least remove the power of coal. In other words, in the future, coal wants to make money, mainly by selling more than selling. This will ease pressure on electricity companies and on electricity prices. This should be a long-term mechanism. The price of electricity was adjusted, and the price of coal followed up. It was the same as no adjustment.
ALUMINIUM DIE CASTING,High Quality ALUMINIUM DIE CASTING,ALUMINIUM DIE CASTING Details, HZ Longsheng Manufacturer Co., Ltd.
led light street housing Co., Ltd. , http://www.cnccasting.com