Technology market : The rapid development of new technologies will further drive demand while adhering to market-oriented conditions.
Business market : Focus on business innovation, new business is the main driving force of revenue, and will continue to increase rapidly.
Operating market : Step up transformation, increase revenue, and slow down investment. There will be new business focus in the 3G era.
Based on a deep understanding of the communications industry and the current status of the communications market in 2005, Baina Telecom analyzed and summarized the development status of the technology market, business market and operation market since this year, and carried out possible development trends of the three markets in the coming year Forecast, three conclusions are drawn: technology market, anti-guest-based; business market, changing; operating market, taking advantage of the momentum. In the technology market, anti-customer mainly refers to the concept of balancing "market-led technological innovation" with "technology creates demand". Baina analysis believes that the 3G era will drive market demand with new technologies while guiding technological innovation in the market, rather than hindering the development of new technologies due to fear of market demand. 3G is an obvious example. There will naturally be demand for 3G. Do n’t worry that there is no market, and strategies that hinder the development of 3G are unwise. In the business market, change refers to the survival of various services in a complicated environment. The first change refers to the service innovation and business development led by operators, and the second change refers to the changeable market environment. Operating the market to take advantage of the situation refers to operators taking advantage of the advent of 3G to carry out reform and grasp development, and strive to continue to enhance competitiveness.
Taking these three conclusions as entry points, based on Bainer's unique understanding and understanding of the telecommunications market, we have selected 12 key points to take stock of this year's communication status. They are: technology market (HSDPA, WIMAX, IMS / FMC, TD-SCDMA); business market (CRBT, MMS, LBS, IPTV); operation market (transformation, income, investment, business).
As shown in Table 1 and Figure 1, from the situation of GOOGLE search, compared with 2004, as the pace of domestic 3G is more and more exhausted, people's attention to HSDPA, WIMAX and IMS has increased significantly. Although the search results of TD show a decline, TD is still a topic that people generally pay attention to.
HSDPA
In 2004, HSDPA was still in the testing stage, and large-scale commercialization had not begun. At the same time, domestic understanding of 3G was still in confusion, and the policy was very unclear. In 2005, national policy support for 3G became more and more clear. Commercial use has begun worldwide. The successful experience of foreign commercial use and the increasingly mature HSDPA technology have attracted the attention of several major operators. China Mobile has begun the HSDPA test process. The enthusiasm of operators has guided the enthusiasm of equipment vendors, including local Huawei, ZTE and foreign Ericsson, Nokia, Lucent, etc. have increased their investment in HSDPA and completed the tests one after another.
Bainer predicts that in 2006, HSDPA will be developed, and both TD-SCDMA HSDPA and WCDMA HSDPA will be developed. The requirements for the terminal will be more mature. In addition to the data card, the mobile terminal supporting the HSDPA function needs to be more perfect. Therefore, in 2006, the investment and improvement of the terminal will be the focus of the next development.
WIMAX
In 2004, WIMAX was not commercially available in the world. The standard progress is still at 802.16d. The technology is still not mature enough. There is still a distance in achieving mobility. At the same time, the allocation of WIMAX bands in various countries is still under discussion In addition, the 3G policy is not clear, and WIMAX, like HSDPA, has not been paid more attention as a post-3G technology. In 2005, the domestic 3G commercial process accelerated, and based on the many advantages of WIMAX hotspot coverage, the industry paid more attention to whether the relationship between WIMAX and 3G was competitive or complementary. Because of its technical maturity, the 802.16e standard has made more operators see hope. Worldwide, many countries have begun commercial deployment of WIMAX.
Baina predicts that in 2006, the progress of WIMAX will be affected by the issuance of licenses and the allocation of frequency bands. At the same time, operators such as emerging operators and China Railcom will pay more attention to WIMAX, and increase investment and publicity.
IMS / FMC
In fact, FMC has always been the focus of attention in the industry, because integration is always an inevitable development. As the core network technology supporting FMC, IMS cannot be ignored either. In 2004, the operator's test of IMS did not start, and equipment manufacturers were still in the preliminary stage of IMS research and development, without considering QOS. In 2005, operators such as China Mobile embarked on the IMS testing process, and equipment vendors participated in it. At the same time, equipment vendors have developed higher levels of IMS research and development, which has enabled the IMS core network to fully realize fixed and mobile services. perfect.
Baina predicts that in 2006, as equipment vendors roll out more mature IMS versions, operators will successively complete IMS full-service pilots. FMC based on IMS is the future development trend of the communications industry. Equipment manufacturers may use IMS to strengthen their dominant position in the industry chain and balance their current shortcomings in the industry chain cooperation.
TD-SCDMA
TD is a domestic independent research and development standard. Therefore, in the early stage of standard determination, the industry was very proud of the first independent research and development standard. Therefore, the attention to TD became particularly urgent and enthusiastic. Since 2005, with the approach of the 3G era, TD is still receiving much attention. Whether TD will be networked separately, and how TD licenses will be issued is the most discussed topic.
Baina Forecast: In 2006, the development of TD depends on the support of national policies. In order to support the national industry, in order to reduce operators' concerns about TD, make TD standards more complete, networking more mature, and more in line with market demand, the government will increase investment in TD policies and funds.
As shown in Table 2 and Table 3, CRBT and MMS have achieved remarkable development results in 2005, and IPTV has begun the commercialization process under the strong promotion of fixed-line operators, and the development momentum is gratifying.
CRBT / MMS
This year, the rapid growth of MMS and CRBT is mainly because: in terms of business characteristics, they meet the personalized characteristics of young people; from the perspective of usage habits, because more and more people use MMS and CRBT, they Colleagues and loved ones have a demonstration effect, forming a virtuous circle, which allows more people to join the ranks of users. At the same time, operators have increased the promotion of MMS and CRBT, the tariffs have been further reduced, and SP has also been more content development Abundance, content and tariffs also stimulated user growth.
Bainer predicts that in 2006, MMS and CRBT will continue to develop. Due to the low base, the market has a large room for growth, and users and revenue will continue to grow exponentially.
LBS
LBS is still in the market introduction period and has been applied in enterprises, but the expansion in the personal market is still weak.
Baina Forecast: In 2006, LBS will accelerate its development due to the commercialization of 3G, and will break through the bottleneck of the market introduction period and enter the market development period.
IPTV
Looking back at the major events of IPTV in 2005, we can see that the development momentum of IPTV in 2005 is rapid, and the most notable feature is that the issuance and commercialization of IPTV licenses have alleviated people's concerns about IPTV being run over by digital TV. In May, Shanghai Television, a subsidiary of Shanghai Media News Group, officially obtained the first domestic IPTV business license issued by the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television; then, Netcom and Telecom launched IPTV tests respectively. On November 28, with the permission of the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, Shanghai Media News Group (SMG) and Shanghai Telecom Company jointly announced the launch of the IPTV business, which began the domestic commercialization of IPTV.
Bainer predicts: Since IPTV may increase operator users and increase ARPU, etc., operators will increase their investment in IPTV based on market interests, and 2006 will be a breakthrough period for the development of IPTV. At the same time, IPTV will continue its business penetration after penetrating the TV market, including providing VIDEO PHONE / SMS / MMS / WEB browsing / EMAIL and other services, and can provide more TRI-PLAY services.
3. Operating market (transformation, income, investment, business)
It can be seen from Table 5 that in 2005, the revenue of operators increased steadily, but the overall investment slowed down, and new business expansion was the main business expansion.
Transformation
So far, China Telecom and China Mobile have considered the most transformation. The transformation from fixed-line operators to telecom full-service operators and from telecom operators to integrated information service providers is the transformation idea proposed by China Telecom. In 2005, affected by the 3G commercial process, China Telecom accelerated its transformation. In August, China Telecom put forward the staged goal of telecom transformation. And seeking to become a comprehensive information service provider with mobile characteristics is China Mobile's consideration for future business. At the end of this year, China Mobile has started IMS testing for FMC.
Bainer predicts that the operator's transformation in 2006 will enter the stage of direct operation. Wang Xiaochu, general manager of China Telecom, pointed out in the 2006 working meeting that "2006 is the first year of the" Eleventh Five-Year Plan "and is also a key year for China Telecom to fully promote its transformation.
income
In 2005, the revenue of operators continued to grow, with revenue of 136.5 billion yuan in the first quarter, 281.2 billion yuan in the second quarter, and 431.1 billion yuan in the third quarter. This is mainly driven by new business. The mobile operator's CRBT, MMS / CAI and WAP and wireless mobile games are developing rapidly, while fixed PHS services and broadband services are the main sources of revenue for fixed-line operators.
Baina predicts that in 2006, operator revenues will continue to grow. As a result of 3G commercial use, the growth trend will be more obvious. At the same time, new services will continue to be the fastest-growing business for mobile operators, while PHS and broadband services will continue to grow. It is the main source of income for fixed-line operators.
investment
In the first three quarters of this year, the cumulative investment in each quarter has decreased compared to last year. The investment in the first quarter was 28.4 billion yuan, 28.44 billion yuan in the same period last year, a decrease of 0.1% over the same period last year; the cumulative investment in the second quarter was 77.81 billion yuan, 88.64 billion yuan was completed in the same period last year, a decrease of 12.2% over the same period last year; the third quarter The accumulated investment was 121.1 billion yuan, compared with 138.12 billion yuan in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%. There are two reasons for the gradual slowdown of operator investment. One is the impact of 3G license issuance. 3G investment is a huge venture investment, and there is no clear expectation of return at present, so operators are relatively cautious about investing in 3G. The second is that major operators have listed one after another this year, and the companies after listing have paid more attention to return on investment.
Baina forecasts: In 2006, the issuance of 3G licenses will guide the changes in the investment structure of operators. At the same time, the investment of operators will continue to be cautious, and it will be a step by step in the construction of 3G networks and business development, and there will be no large-scale and large-scale investment moves.
business expansion
In 2005, operators paid more attention to the development of new services. As mentioned earlier, mobile operators' MMS, CRBT and other new business revenues are growing rapidly, while PHS and broadband services are the main sources of revenue for fixed-line operators. Not only that, mobile operators have also strengthened the expansion of other new services, such as positioning services, mobile streaming services and push-to-talk services during the market introduction period, while fixed network operators have Pay more attention to new services such as business pilot and fixed-line color ring back tone, and expand the enterprise user market while expanding the individual user market.
Baina Forecast: In 2006, with the launch of 3G, mobile operators will focus on expanding 3G-based positioning services and mobile streaming services, while fixed-line operators will also make significant progress in services such as the number Pepsi and fixed-line CRBT. Breakthrough, because the number PepsiCo adapts to the needs of current information service providers, and at present, the penetration rate of fixed telephones and the popularity of fixed-line color ringtones form a great contrast. This contrast is the market space to be developed in 2006.
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