At present, the automotive industry is facing the rise of digital technology, changes in energy and power, and new operating and sales ideas; concepts such as car networking, autonomous driving, digital services, electric vehicles, shared mobility, and new automotive retail have opened up a vast blue ocean .
PricewaterhouseCoopers Strategy predicts that in 2030, only the digital mobility service industry will reach a market size of 2.2 trillion US dollars, but the industry profits of existing car manufacturers will be halved.
The huge market cake hits a period of technological transformation opportunities, coupled with a mature automotive industry chain, and Tesla's "successful demonstration", attracting technology giants such as Google, BAT, Intel, etc., all kinds of new car forces are crazy to grab "new travel" ".
According to Bosch China statistics, as of November 2017, China has more than 60 new car-making forces. In the past three years, the new car-making movement has experienced stages such as financing, hiring, and car-making concepts. Each company has started to produce mass-produced products and entered a critical period of product and user experience.
Difficulties in car manufacturing require a large amount of R & D investment and complex production management. In addition, new energy vehicles may face the risk of overcapacity, and the new forces of car manufacturing will face fierce competition in the future.
In this issue of intelligent internal reference, we recommend the research report of the new car-making forces from Huatai Securities. Combining the historical wave of car-making, we will look into the future auto industry pattern from the perspective of creativity, strategy, capital and market.
The following is the dry goods presented by the intelligent internal reference:
Node: Eve of mass production
Car making is a complicated project. New cars are in full swing, but the threshold is not low.
First of all, the technological content of automobiles is not low, and technological innovations such as hybrid powertrains and intelligent driving systems require a large amount of R & D investment; secondly, the production of a car requires more than 10,000 parts and components. Chain management, quality management, and production management capabilities; third, automotive safety requires almost 100% yield, involving many complex quality management systems; in addition, mass production requires strict prevention of errors and strict cost control; and finally, As a mass consumer product, cars are updated rapidly, and they have very high requirements on the R & D reserves and market response capabilities of car companies.
The above requirements have revealed the reasons for the difficulty of car manufacturing, and also made the automobile industry a benchmark for manufacturing.
In 2018, the new forces of car manufacturing will usher in the "big test" (the major new car companies have launched mass production models from 2017 to 2019), and sales and market satisfaction will be their scores. The sales data will undoubtedly affect the judgment of subsequent capital, and to a certain extent determine the future of new car manufacturers.
Main creation: three types of background
The different backgrounds of the founders' entry have led to the strategic differentiation of the new forces in the car industry. According to the previous work background of the founder, Huatai Securities divided the new forces of car manufacturing into three categories:
New car companies with internet background
1. Internet car-making. The founders come from Internet companies or Internet media. Such car companies may have a more distinctive Internet thinking, attach importance to publicity and user experience. Wait;
Traditional car company background
2. The traditional car companies make cars, which refers to the founders who were the executives of traditional car companies. Such car companies usually pay more attention to the technology and quality of the cars themselves. , Cloudiness, future, etc .;
Cross-border car manufacturers
3. Cross-border car manufacturing. The founders come from other industries, most of which are upstream parts companies and home appliance industries. Representative companies include Wanxiang Automobile, Jiangsu Minan, Gree Automobile and so on.
Strategy: Out of the boxBecause the founders entered different backgrounds, the new forces in car manufacturing emphasized their own characteristics in strategic choices, and at the same time formed product differences with traditional car companies.
Internet background car companies (such as Wei Lai) pay attention to user experience, pay attention to publicity traffic, and emphasize the combination of online and offline marketing models; traditional background car companies (such as Weimar) put more energy into the technology sense of the car itself (radical The design style of the car includes a large display screen in the car, etc.) and quality / quality control; cross-border car manufacturing likes to combine the car manufacturing and the characteristics of major shareholders.
The innovation of the new forces in car manufacturing brings new vitality to the industry and promotes industry innovation.
New forces in car manufacturing have rich product positioning
1. In terms of product positioning, the new forces of car manufacturing are fully covered at the high, middle and low ends, but the models mostly choose pure electric SUVs, mainly aiming at this part of the blank market.
The new force of car manufacturing
2. In terms of car performance, new forces in car manufacturing emphasize electricization and intelligence. In the choice between 100-kilometer acceleration performance and cruising range of electric vehicles, most of the new forces in car manufacturing have chosen to guarantee cruising range; in terms of intelligent characteristics, in order to emphasize the sense of future and technology of new cars, new cars are added with high-end automatic assisted driving systems .
Newly-built car automatic driving system
3. In terms of marketing, most of the new forces in car manufacturing use the "experience store + Internet + direct sales" method to replace the traditional 4S store, which reflects the Internet sharing spirit of Internet car manufacturing. It costs tens of millions to invest in a traditional 4S store. Direct selling saves this part of the cost and allows you to reach users more directly.
The new force marketing model
4. In terms of production mode, most of the new forces in car manufacturing gradually gave up the OEM idea and changed to build their own factories. Considering the relatively difficult quality control of OEM products, the lack of production qualification for self-manufacturing temporarily, most of the new forces in car manufacturing adopt the model of OEM before self-manufacturing; and the new forces of traditional car companies headed by Weimar, Yundu, and Jinkang start from Start by choosing to build your own factory.
Enterprises that have obtained production qualifications for new energy vehicles
5. In terms of charging mode, the vast majority of car companies have chosen a more conservative charging mode, and a few new car-making forces (Wei Lai, Che He Jia, and Singularity) have proposed the use of power replacement and battery rental models to reduce user costs. At present, there are several disadvantages of the power exchange mode: the cost is high, the site resource requirements are high, it is not easy to arrange more sites, and there is a lack of standardization.
Charging mode for new forces in car manufacturing
Funding: No money to play XWei Hui, CEO of Weimar Automobile: It is estimated that RMB 340 billion will be invested in car manufacturing.
Che Hejia CEO Li Xiang: The estimated capital expenditure is at least 20 billion.
Ranger Automobile Chairman: Mass production of 10,000 cars requires at least 20 billion investment.
The automotive industry is an industry that has high capital investment as a barrier. For the new forces in car manufacturing, the capital investment may exceed 20 billion for a car with a mass production of 10,000 units.
Capital expenditure for building 10,000 cars
For these new car manufacturers, listing financing is the final way. However, even a world-famous new car listed company like Tesla is stretched in the capital chain. Tesla has been losing money for many years since it went public in 2010, and the breakeven seems to be far away. The financing ability that can support the breakeven is very important for a new car manufacturer.
Financing progress of new forces in car manufacturing
At present, the Internet and traditional background car manufacturing rely more on venture capital financing, while cross-border car manufacturing is backed by shareholders with abundant funds.
In terms of investment and financing scale, there are three new forces with a scale of tens of billions of vehicles: Weilai Automobile (Internet background, financing exceeds 14.6 billion yuan, the company's valuation is 30 billion yuan, and founder Li Bin has successfully won venture capital investment Capital favors), Weimar Automobile (traditional background, financing of more than 12 billion yuan, valuation of 30 billion yuan), Yingshi Automobile (funded by the listed company's major shareholder). The financing scale of the next echelon of LeTV and Singularity Automobiles is around 5 billion yuan. In addition to the completion of the D round of financing, other companies are in the early stage of financing such as A and B rounds.
History: Standout and FallenNew American car: Three Musketeers
During the reign of US President Barack Obama, he vigorously promoted the development of new energy vehicles, and there was a wave of new energy vehicle manufacturing in the United States. In this wave, the most influential car companies are the American electric vehicle three swordsmen "Fisker, Coda, Tesla".
By the end of 2013, Coda and Fisker had successively declared bankruptcy, leaving Tesla alone. As the pioneer of China's new car wave, the reasons for the frustration and success of the "Three Musketeers" are worthy of our investigation: excessive reliance on outsourcing, product positioning failure and financing difficulties lead to the final failure of Fisker and Coda; Tesla's success lies in its adherence to core technology R & D, high-end positioning, innovative marketing strategies, and capital market support.
Analysis of the Success and Failure of Three Musketeers in American Electric Vehicles
China's fifth wave of car manufacturingThe four wave of car-making after the founding of New China, two before the reform and opening up (formation of Tianjin, Shenyang, Wuhan, Nanchang, Hefei and other developed areas with strong car-making strength), and two after the reform and opening up (the formation of the basic automobile industry in China pattern). Throughout the history, the formation of the wave of car-making has three major factors: policy promotion, demand-driven and technological change.
Since 2015, there has been another wave of Internet car manufacturing and new energy car manufacturing (the fifth time) in China, but the market environment of today's auto industry has been different than before.
From the demand side, the growth rate of China's passenger vehicle industry has slowed down, entering an era of single-digit growth. Due to the immature technology, the spontaneous demand for new energy vehicle consumers is not high, and more depends on policy subsidies and license preferential policies. From the supply side, the overall overcapacity situation in the automotive industry has not been alleviated. From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the domestic competitive landscape is basically stable, and established manufacturers such as SAIC and GAC have basically controlled the market.
The new wave of car manufacturing is dominated by private enterprises, so Huatai Securities focuses on analyzing the success or failure factors of the previous wave of car manufacturing by private companies (see the figure below), hoping to give some inspiration to the new car manufacturing forces.
Four killers of Chinese private enterprises to build cars
An Analysis of the Failure Cases of the History of Chinese Private Enterprises
Two killers of China's cross-border car manufacturing
An Analysis of Failure Cases in the History of Chinese Cross-border Car Manufacturing
Apocalypse of the three giants of civil construction vehicles
The successful experience summary of the three giants of civil construction vehicles
Seven factors for success or failureThere are many reasons why automobile manufacturers are blocked from making automobiles. Usually, the setback encountered by an enterprise is not caused by a single factor. Although the success paths of Geely, Chery and BYD are different, they have certain commonalities, emphasizing independent research and development and precise vehicle positioning are the core factors of their success.
Through the above analysis, Huatai Securities pointed out that companies that can really win the final victory should have the following qualities (according to this standard, Weimar Automobile, Weilai Automobile, Yundu New Energy, Wanxiang Automobile, etc. are in a leading position) :
1. Sufficient funds and strong capital market financing ability
The auto industry is a "capital + technology" intensive industry, and car manufacturing requires a large amount of upfront capital investment. According to preliminary estimates, to achieve mass production of cars, the new forces of car manufacturing must prepare at least 20 billion in cash.
LeTV, Midea, Youth Lotus and other car manufacturing failures are due to broken capital chains. It is difficult for companies to continue financing to support subsequent investment in car manufacturing, which makes it difficult to update models and miss market opportunities. Weilai Automobile and Tesla both have strong financing capabilities, and quickly raised funds in the capital market to support early investment.
Tesla was able to IPO as soon as possible, to achieve secondary market financing, to solve the cash flow problem caused by its years of losses. For the new forces in car manufacturing, as soon as possible, financing in the secondary market to support subsequent car manufacturing expenditures is undoubtedly a clear way.
2. Have your own core technology research and development
Since 2003, Tesla has invested heavily in research and development. The reason why Tesla can succeed is that it insists on self-control. Its competitors Fisker and Coda have adopted the OEM model. Although the OEM model allows companies to build new cars as soon as possible and save costs, quality control cannot be guaranteed, and delivery time cannot be guaranteed, which all cause brand image. As a result of the greater damage, both competitors failed.
In China, Geely acquired Volvo to absorb its car-making technology, Chery continued to invest in engine research and development, and BYD New Energy has core battery technology. A successful car manufacturer must have its own core R & D capabilities.
3. Have a professional management team
For startups, the founder and co-founding team are the soul of the entire enterprise. Having a team that understands the automotive industry is crucial. "Car people" from traditional car companies coupled with "Internet people" from emerging connected companies seem to be the standard for car executives in this round of car making.
The example of Chunlan car manufacturing failure reflects from the side that cross-border car manufacturing companies believe in the importance of professional car teams. "Every line is like a mountain," executives who don't understand autos are undoubtedly hurt the strategic direction of new car companies.
A newly-built car company should not hire too many “big guys†in the traditional auto industry to avoid losing powerful decision makers and causing conflicts between management. The split of Harmony and Fortune is partly because the team is too luxurious, causing the center of gravity to be dispersed.
4. Successful product positioning
The sales situation of the first mass-produced car often determines the confidence of the capital market for car manufacturers, so the product positioning of the first mass-produced car is very important for the company.
Coda is positioned as a mid-to-low-end model, but the product is old-fashioned, of average quality, and has a high price. It is difficult to compete with similar products of traditional car companies, which ultimately leads to the failure of car manufacturing. Both Huaxiang Group and Goo Automobile Positioning SUV products prematurely, the market recognition is not high, resulting in poor product sales, and later efforts.
Tesla's positioning of high-end intelligent, pure electric vehicles has attracted market attention and accelerated industrial transformation with a sense of technology that is completely different from traditional fuel vehicles. How to compete with electric cars produced by traditional car companies at the same price is a question that all new forces in car manufacturing must answer.
5. Successful marketing strategy
"Experience store + Internet + direct sales" mode-the innovation of marketing mode is one of Tesla's valuable wealth to the automotive industry.
Tesla does not use traditional media for advertising, but uses Internet word-of-mouth marketing to successfully attract high-end customers with cool, technology and environmental protection concepts; the first users are celebrities and other social celebrities, positioning the brand's high-end fashion; afterwards, The Tesla brand began to sink and launched Model 3 in an attempt to achieve mass sales in the mid-market.
In addition, Tesla's sales are a unique combination of online and offline direct sales model. Instead of setting up a traditional 4S store, it opens an experience store. After the customer is satisfied with the experience, he orders directly online to realize direct sales and save costs.
How to establish a firm foothold through successful marketing in the Red Sea of ​​new energy vehicles is also a matter of deciding the survival of the new car-making forces.
6. Obtain production qualification as soon as possible
Failure to obtain new energy vehicle production qualifications is a roadblock for new forces to build vehicles.
The air-conditioning giant Oster was unable to obtain the qualification for car-making because of policy changes, and finally resigned from the car-building industry. In order to obtain production qualifications, the previous new forces in car manufacturing have adopted methods such as foundry and acquisition of OEMs.
Undoubtedly, obtaining production qualification as early as possible and taking the lead is very important for the new forces of car manufacturing. The country has issued 16 new energy vehicle production qualifications, including promising new vehicles, Jiangsu Minan, Wanxiang Group, Chongqing Jinkang, Guoneng New Energy, Yundu New Energy, Zhejiang Hezhong. Most of the previously obtained new energy vehicle production qualifications are subsidiaries of traditional car companies or parts and components companies such as Wanxiang Group and Jiangsu Minan.
The newly established Internet car manufacturing has not yet obtained production qualifications, which seems to be a difficulty that the new car manufacturing forces must overcome.
7. Shareholders' harmony and stable equity
The car-making forces of the multi-shareholder structure can easily lead to confusion in decision-making due to the unequal strength of the shareholders, which ultimately leads to failure. Stable equity is the cornerstone of the success of car manufacturing.
The main reason for the failure of Goo ’s car manufacturing is that the two companies, GAC and Miao Xuezhong, have unequal strengths, and they have differences on major strategic issues, which eventually led to the stagnation of the company. Bird Group and Nanjing Auto also had differences in their strategic choices. Eventually, Bird Group withdrew its capital and withdrew, and the car manufacturing failed. The failure of the new car-building force Harmony Futon is also partly due to the withdrawal of shareholders Foxconn.
Outlook: Hardships and obstaclesIn addition to the thresholds of capital, technology, production, and sales, new vehicles will face the following three problems:
1. Possible overcapacity risk
In June 2012, the development goals set by the Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020) issued by the State Council are: By 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will reach 2 million Cars. However, data from the China Economic Observer show that from 2015 to the end of June 2017, more than 200 new energy vehicle projects have been implemented in China, and the relevant investment amount is as high as RMB 100 billion. The automobile production capacity plan exceeds 20 million units, which is 10 times the target set in the Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020).
There is excess capacity planning for new energy vehicles (the planned capacity may reach 10 times the target set by the target country). In the future, there may be a fierce "combat", the winner is king.
2. BAT adopts a cooperative strategy and does not directly participate in car manufacturing
At the beginning of Baidu's research and development of smart cars, it cooperated with dozens of traditional car companies, and only provided software components such as network connection systems. During the 2017 Shanghai Auto Show, Baidu signed an agreement with Chery after releasing the Apollo autonomous driving plan; on July 3, 2017, Baidu signed a cooperation agreement with FAW.
Alibaba is similar to Baidu. It developed the YunOS operating system and cooperated with SAIC passenger cars. In 16 years, it launched the explosive model Roewe RX5, and it was a great success.
Tencent adopts a multi-point layout strategy in the automotive field, shares in Tesla, Weilai Automobile, Didi, etc., reaching out to autonomous driving technology, in-vehicle hardware, Internet of Vehicles, Internet travel, used car transactions, P2P car rental, O2O in the automotive aftermarket Wait for almost all fields.
The Internet giant does not set foot in the car manufacturing industry by itself, but adopts a cooperation model, which shows that it is indeed quite difficult to build a car.
3. The mass-produced models are gradually introduced, and the big test is coming
Judging from the history of car manufacturing in the past, the tide of car manufacturing has been driven by policies, technological changes, and demand pull. There will be dozens or even hundreds of car-making companies in every car-building tide, but only two or three are the winners each time.
Wisdom believes that the newly-built car brings a new sense of technology, design, experience and marketing model to the automotive market, especially "experience store + Internet + direct sales", which provides innovation and supplement to traditional 4S stores. The new energy, intelligence and network connection are the landing points of the old car manufacturers of new cars, which are expected to bring the rise of the automotive electronics industry. In general, in order to make a car successful, experience, team, capital, strategy, technology, production qualification, marketing methods, and market sensitivity are all indispensable.
Capillary Pressure Gauge,2 In 1 Bi-Metal Thermomanometer,Pump Pressure Gauge,Copper Pipe Manometer
ZHOUSHAN JIAERLING METER CO.,LTD , https://www.zsjrlmeter.com