In the mobile phone chip field for two years, it has been in the "hot sport" state: in 2014, foreign chip companies such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, Ericsson and others have announced the withdrawal of the mobile phone chip market; in 2015, Qualcomm reported a decline in performance, layoffs and even spin-offs. Message. At the same time, Chinese chip makers seem to be in a good position: Marvell waits for the price and picks up the market, and Ziguang Group has a strong acquisition of Spreadtrum and RADICO. The exhibition is showing signs of recovery; Lianxin Technology's 4G chip market also has a seat; It also became a success story due to the growth of Huawei's mobile phone sales.
In addition, there are "variables" in the market such as Intel, MediaTek, Apple, Samsung and so on. Do these subtle changes mean the end of the Qualcomm oligarchy? Will China Core rise in the reconstruction of this mobile phone chip map?
The Qualcomm oligopolistic situation will end?
Qualcomm released the latest financial report to announce the layoff plan, and it is estimated that the layoffs will exceed 10%, reaching 4,000. At the same time, the financial report showed a net profit of $1.2 billion in the second quarter, down 47% from $2.2 billion in the same period last year. Qualcomm's major shareholder risk fund, Jana Partners LLC, previously called for the company to split, and the company seems to have split.
As a tycoon that has always been the dominant player in the mobile phone chip field, this year's situation is worrying. In fact, Qualcomm’s market share in the mobile phone chip sector has been declining in the past two years. According to data from Strategy AnalyTIcs, in 2013, Qualcomm dominated the market with a 64% revenue share; in 2014 it fell to 52% market share; in the first quarter of 2015, Qualcomm market share fell to 47%. The chip industry is always very competitive.
It is said that Qualcomm faces a lot of serious emotions, but it is indeed surrounded by enemies.
First of all, from the pursuit of MediaTek. 2014 MediaTek released the first 4G chip, breaking the Qualcomm's dominant position. And completed the goal of 30 million sets of 4G chip shipments in 2014. Xie Qingjiang, general manager of MediaTek, adjusted the sales target of 4G mobile phone chips to 150 million sets at MWC, with a market share of 20%, and the momentum is rapid. In addition, MediaTek was squeezed by Spreadtrum in the low-end and began to seize Qualcomm's high-end market share, releasing the Helio X and Helio P series.
Second, in the high-end mobile phone market, mobile phone manufacturers are starting to use their own chips. Mobile phone manufacturers ranked top three mobile phone manufacturers Apple, Samsung, Huawei have self-developed chips. "Huawei's market share is constantly rising. Huawei's high-end machines are basically using self-developed HiSilicon chips. Huawei's climb means Qualcomm's customer reduction. In the case of a certain market capacity, this means that Qualcomm's market share is decreasing. Wang Yanhui, secretary general of the Mobile China Alliance, told Netease Technology.
For example, Qualcomm's big customer Samsung, this year's flagship mobile phone Galaxy S6 and S6 Edge have adopted the self-developed Exynos 7420 chip instead of the Snapdragon 810, which has a huge impact on Qualcomm. Although the S6 sales were not as good as expected, the sales of 18 million units in a quarter were still the best-selling high-end models outside the iPhone.
"There is also a potential impact is Intel." Wang Yanhui analyzed, "Intel has always been eyeing Apple, recently acquired the CDMA2000 technology of VIA Telecom, which can provide a full-mode baseband chip. It is possible to seize Apple in Qualcomm's hands. Samsung's two major customers."
In this way, Qualcomm’s oligarchy seems to be in jeopardy. However, Wang Yanhui believes that in the next 2-3 years, the situation of Qualcomm in the high-end market will continue to exist. After all, Qualcomm is still in a leading position in technology. Qualcomm's upcoming Snapdragon 820 will support the Cat.10 standard, while other chip makers remain on the Cat.6 and Cat.9 standards (except for the self-supplied sea of ​​Huawei). Siqilin 950 also supports the Cat.10 standard). MediaTek is still difficult to compete with Qualcomm in the high-end market.
In addition, the story flip will still be possible to continue to use Qualcomm's chips next year, and for Qualcomm to save a big customer. Wang Yanhui revealed to Netease Technology that Qualcomm will use the chip foundry business as an exchange condition and will force Samsung to continue to adopt Qualcomm chips. "Samsung is also a chip foundry in addition to self-developed chips. Qualcomm hopes to hand over the foundry business to Samsung instead of TSMC. The condition is that Samsung uses Qualcomm's chips. After accounting, Samsung believes that OEMs are more profitable. Therefore, 2016 The mainstream models of the year will also use Qualcomm chips."
Therefore, in the next 2-3 years, Qualcomm will still occupy the high-end models of mainstream mobile phone manufacturers; while MediaTek is still dominated by mainland mobile phone brands; Spreadtrum is backed by Samsung and second- and third-line brands.
The rise of China's core: the low-end spoilers
As the king of the mid-range, MediaTek is now in the back.
The Strategy AnalyTIcs report shows that in the first quarter of 2015, Spreadtrum's market share in the 3G baseband market reached 29.3%, with shipments of 63 million, exceeding MediaTek's 60 million. "Exhibition is a spoiler. Its goal is not to make money, but to market share. MediaTek will be directly affected." Wang Yanhui believes.
Spreadtrum is in a leading position in the 2G era, but the 3G era was too late to miss the best development opportunities. However, with the stable maturity of communication technology in 4G, Spreadtrum is gradually catching up. In the field of communications, the commercial gold standard for mobile communication standards is generally 5-8 years. At present, the golden period of 4G mobile communication applications can be extended to at least 2020, and the life cycle of 28nm process chips supporting 4G commercials is also 4-5 years, which gives domestic chip manufacturers a chance to catch up.
In terms of time, Spreadtrum can have sufficient time to narrow the gap with the world's leading level; in terms of funds, Spreadtrum has the strong support of the parent company Ziguang.
Between 2013 and 2014, Ziguang Group acquired two chip companies, Spreadtrum and RADICO, and vowed to build a world-class enterprise group in the field of semiconductor chips. Therefore, Ziguang gave the exhibition news huge financial support. Ziguang Group has received 10 billion investment from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund, and Spreadtrum has naturally benefited as a subsidiary.
"During the support of the parent company Ziguang and the country, Spreadtrum can be said to be not bad." An insider of the chip industry who did not want to sign said, "So, Spreadtrum uses money to buy technology, buy talent, and not for profit. Exploring the market. It is understood that the total number of exhibitors in 2014 after the expansion of 1,000 people is more than 4,000.
"Intel invested in Ziguang's 9 billion RMB funds, which greatly eased the financial difficulties of Spreadtrum. It also provided sufficient funds for the second half of the exhibition to grab the WCDMA and LTE markets. In the future, Spreadtrum will adopt a more aggressive market strategy. With the return of blood, the price war between Qualcomm MediaTek will be even more fierce." Wang Yanhui believes.
In addition, another Chinese chip manufacturer, Lianxin Technology, is also in the 4G field. Qian Guoliang, general manager of Lianxin Technology, said that the eight-core 64-bit chip product of Lianxin Technology's LTE Cat.9/10 communication system has entered the product layout stage, and the process technology will reach the level of 14nm.
According to the data given by Lianxin Technology, the smartphones equipped with “China Core†in 2015 are expected to account for 20% of the domestic market share, and the layout of China Core will gradually expand.
In this regard, Wang Yanhui warned: "The purpose of the Chinese chip manufacturers to fight the price war is to seize the market. But if the technical strength has not kept up, the price war without cost is meaningless."
In short, although the market has seen the rise of China's core, the high-end market is still a difficult problem.
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