Just over a month in 2018, Wu Gansha became very busy and was busy developing a new site for his driverless car.
Since he retired as the president of Intel China Research Institute and established the company, he has adapted to this "coupling" life. Even our interview today is a rush to take a group photo, and then in the car, he also jokingly said: "Talking in the car without driver, this is called Jinger!"
Figure | The right one is the founder of Gansu Technology Wu Gansha
In fact, as early as the end of 2016, the company has already drawn a place in Fangshan District, Beijing, to use it as a vehicle road test, but this is obviously not enough.
“A place like Beijing, (unmanned vehicle test) has to go to downtown, but there are a lot of cars and people on the road. The most important thing about driverless driving is that people and cars need to be diverted. At this point, this place Very suitable, very good." After he finished another inspection, it seems that he has plans in mind.
“I think this place is very suitable for unmanned driving. It is still a blank paper that can be painted.â€
It seems that the new round of staking of the technology has begun.
How long does it take for unmanned driving in a common scene?
For unmanned vehicles, the industry generally believes that only when the L5 level is reached, is the mature driving stage of the general scene. For its arrival time, there have been two kinds of speculations. One is that in 2021, many companies said it was this time (except Ford's statement is a bit conservative); the other is 2025.
How did this time come in 2021? In fact, it is a bit nonsense. Just as the country often does a five-year plan, when the unmanned driving in 2016, everyone is saying, let's also make a five-year plan. As a result, the time was set at 2021.
However, even so, Wu Gansha believes that by 2021, driverless driving may not be achieved.
Wu Gansha said: "The biggest difference between the information society and the industrial society is that the industrial society is Newton's law, a very straightforward causal relationship. How much displacement do you have, how much displacement is generated, which means technology. The development of itself is such a rhythm that cannot be ripened.
"But the information society is Merton's law. In a common saying, it is 'how bold people are, how big is the land.' When you let everyone believe that autopilot will be realized in 2021, then a lot of money and Talent will be thrown in, and as a result, this prophecy is really self-fulfilling."
The other 2025 timeline for driverless driving is basically based on 10 years.
Some people in the United States have proposed the famous "Emola Law", which believes that people tend to overestimate the short-term influence of technology and underestimate the long-term influence of technology. Therefore, the industry has appropriately extended the timeline for several years.
"If someone says that my technology can change the world in two years, this is why he overestimates it, and it is unlikely. Some people say that this technology can't be seen in my life. After 5 or 10 years, the technology It has been realized."
Therefore, Wu Gansha believes that from this perspective, "10 years (to 2025) this time can not be underestimated."
Of course, there are also opinions in the industry that by 2030, 90% of people's travel will be achieved through unmanned shared travel. Some even say that by 2035, the whole world will undergo earth-shaking changes.
However, the recent domestic driverless driving has been followed by a series of big news. In addition to the development of its own airport shuttle bus project, there are also four unmanned buses running on the road on December 2, 2017, and the unmanned minibus in Nanjing on February 2, 2018, which caused a lot of Great concern.
Based on the open road segment of unmanned driving, the smoke has begun to pervade, and it is necessary to start a new movement.
Wu Gansha said: "The driverless driving in the open road section must be done. The key is to see the risk is uncontrollable. We are also on the road in Beijing, testing the system security and maximizing the risk through the open road section. I estimate that it is the latest. In the second quarter of this year, there will be a lot of cars in Beijing that will start running on the road, but it can only be regarded as a test phase, not a real commercial operation.
"When you've done dozens of tests in hundreds of single scenes, you have a lot of power when you're faced with a very complex, versatile scenario."
By that time, it should be the next peak of the downturn.
What are the forms of future driverless cars?
We can get the answer to this question from some life scenes.
In the future, if you go to work in the morning, you can go directly to the subway or unmanned bus; if you need to meet with customers at noon, you can call a dedicated car directly; if you want to open a video conference or discuss cooperation with customers, you can Change to an MPV; if you want to exercise at any time on your way to work, you can call a mobile gym. . . . . .
Based on his thinking about the future vehicle shape, Wu Gansha has four types of cars in his conception that will become the dominant models of life scenes: AOO-class models, buses, minibuses/MPVs, and functional vehicles.
The first one is the AOO-class small car that is common today.
"You see the current stream of vehicles coming and going. You average the number of passengers in all the cars, that is, just a few, but very few. But you see that the cars are nearly 2 tons.
"It is wasteful to use a 2 ton car to transport less than 100 kilograms. It is physically unreasonable. So we think that the future AOO class will be commuting or personal travel in the city. It is a mainstream model."
The second type is the bus.
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